November 15, 2022
After two years of Democratic control, the results have been disastrous- 40-year high inflation, surging crime, high energy costs, open borders, Afghanistan debacle, and a looming recession. Polling indicates that 75% of the country believe our nation is on the wrong track, and Biden’s approval rating is among the lowest of any president at this point in the term. By all accounts, Republicans should have routed Democrats in the midterm election.
Election prognosticators universally believed that the GOP would handily take control of the House, with a good chance of recapturing the Senate. Republicans will likely win back the House, but with a razor-thin majority, and the Senate remains controlled by the Democrat party. The night that everyone predicted to be a red tsunami was a disappointing red ripple.
A post-election voter analysis sheds light on some reasons for the less-than-stellar night for Republicans.
Independent Voters and Abortion Rights
Despite Republicans winning the popular vote with nearly 5.5 million more votes than Democrats in House races, as indicated by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Republicans fell short in key races. A large national survey by AP VoteCaste found that Independent voters, who traditionally break for the party out of power by double digits, favored Democrats over Republicans by 4%.
In swing states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, independents broke for Democrats by double digits. Independent voters were more than 30% of the midterm voter pool, so their preference for Democrats was hugely impactful.
Many independents cast their vote for Democrats despite dissatisfaction with the country’s direction because of abortion. Abortion rights were a bigger issue for voters than most realized. Overall, 27% claimed this was the most important issue to their vote- almost as many voters that said inflation was their most important issue.
Nominating candidates, such as Tudor Dixon, who lost by a wide margin to Michigan Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer, was a foreseeable mistake. The overwhelming majority of the country is against late-term abortions but favors abortion in cases involving incest, rape, or saving the mother’s life. Dixon ran on an anti-abortion platform with no exceptions.
Confirmation that abortion weighed heavily on the minds of Michigan voters, a ballot measure enshrining abortion into Michigan’s constitution passed with 57% of the vote. An uncompromising pro-life absolutist did not stand a chance.
Michigan is not an outlier. A Pew Research analysis indicates 61% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases in the first few months of pregnancy.
In light of the Dobbs’ decision, Republicans needed to stress that the Supreme Court did not ban abortion- it merely left the choice up to individual states. Although immediately following the ruling, many Republicans asserted that they did not support a complete ban, in the months leading up to the election, abortion was a neglected issue by the GOP.
Democrats spent $391 million on abortion ads portraying Republicans as villains from the Hand Maids Tale, while the GOP only spent $11 million countering the false portrayal of Republicans as extremists wanting to take away women’s rights. No doubt abortion factored heavily with single women who also voted majority Democrat.
Also noteworthy- two months ago Senator Lindsey Graham (SC-R) did his party a great disservice by introducing a federal abortion ban bill, undercutting the Republican message that the overturning of Roe vs Wade leaves the issue up to the states and is not a nation-wide ban. Why Graham even introduced the bill, knowing that without control of Congress, there was zero chance it would be successful, is a mystery.
Youth Vote
Representing 12% of all voters in this election, Americans under 30 voted for Democrats by a nationwide margin of 63%. In some swing states, such as Pennsylvania -the margin was 70%. By comparison, in 1990, when a similar percentage of voters under 30 cast a midterm ballot, only 52% voted Democrat.
No doubt, abortion rights factored heavily among young people. However, it is undeniable that the brainwashing of America’s youth by an educational system run by far-left activists, whose mission is to mold the minds of the young, turning them against American values to create Democratic voters, is working.
Children throughout the nation are learning that capitalism is unjust and America is an oppressive country founded on racism. A generation ago, it would have been unthinkable for a child to sit in protest during the pledge of allegiance. It is now encouraged and even lauded in some schools. Many schools have abandoned the morning oath altogether.
Conservatives need to amplify their efforts to stop the teaching of critical race theory and anti-American rhetoric. Counterattacking the “woke” messages that young children hear in schools is vital. More outreach to college-age youth is also essential for the future success of the Republican party.
Biden’s $500 billion student debt relief also likely factored into the voting calculus of younger voters. Even the cognitively impaired Biden had to know that unilaterally transferring half a trillion of debt to American taxpayers with the swipe of a pen was an unconstitutional abuse of power. Just days after the election, two courts blocked Biden’s student loan giveaway. But, too late, mission accomplished, the youth came out in droves to support Democrats.
Election Laws
It is also without question that the changes made to election laws under the guise of Covid tilted the 2020 presidential election and now the 2022 midterm elections in favor of Democrats.
Indicative of the inequity of the current voting system, hundreds of thousands already voted in Pennsylvania before the only debate between senatorial candidates John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet OZ. Fetterman’s debate performance made clear that he lied about his cognitive impairment, but this information came too late for those who voted early. Undoubtedly that was the Fetterman campaign’s intent.
Unfortunately, election integrity is not a priority in many states. An exception is Florida. In April, Governor Ron DeSantis signed an election security bill ending ballot harvesting, drop boxes, and mass ballot mailing, strengthened ID laws, and formed a state election crime agency. Florida had every vote tabulated within hours and was the only state to exceed the optimistic midterm predictions for the Republican party.
Republicans will have an uphill climb restoring election integrity, especially in blue states. In the meantime, they need to play by the same rules as Democrats and stop emphasizing voting on election day. How many Republican voters in Arizona did not vote rather than travel to another precinct because their voting location was one of the 30% with tabulating issues? How many Republican voters who intended to vote on election day were sick or got sidetracked and never voted?
In states where ballot harvesting is allowed, Democrats actively go to unmotivated/busy/lazy voters who would not have otherwise sent in their ballots. Republicans need to do the same. Reliance on one day to win elections, when the opponent is tallying up votes months before the official election day, is not a winning strategy.
Although the election was disappointing, there is a significant bright spot- Republicans will likely win back the House. As is often said, the “gavel” does not vary in size depending on the size of the majority. Even a slim majority will enable the GOP to constrain the Biden administration from passing additional economy-killing spending bills.
Republicans will also have subpoena power and the ability to dictate the focus of hearings and compel testimony and documents.
Rep. James Comer (R-KY), the likely next chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, has promised hearings into the Biden family’s business dealings. Republicans have also indicated they will investigate the catastrophic Afghanistan withdrawal, Covid-19 origin and policies, and the handling of the US border. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), poised to lead the House Judiciary Committee, said an investigation into the “weaponization of the DOJ/FBI against the American people” will also be a priority.
The successful exposure of the corruption and incompetence within the Democratic Party would be an unequivocal win for the Republican Party and our country.
Another silver lining – the better-than-expected turnout for Democrats improves the odds that an older, more enfeebled Biden will run for reelection in 2024.
