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September 19, 2018
Once again President Trump has given fodder to his critics via Twitter. A study released last month by George Washington University Miller Institute School of Public Health has concluded that 2,975 people have died in Puerto Rico as a consequence of Hurricane Maria. Trump has questioned its veracity, and the methodology behind the findings.
There is no standard practice for calculating death tolls from natural disasters. Officials usually rely on reports from local medical examiners. Complicating efforts to determine if the deaths were related to Hurricane Maria, only 30% of the dead received an autopsy. Consequently, the estimates in the wake of the storm have varied greatly.
The Puerto Rican government initially claimed that 64 lives were lost as a result of Maria. Researchers from Harvard this past June estimated that between 793- 8,498 people died as a result of the storm.
The study by George Washington looked at deaths from the day of the storm up to 6 months later. They concluded that 2,975 fatalities could be attributed to Maria in this time period. Results were attained by examining birth certificates and comparing death rates with prior years. They subtracted the number hypothesized would have died if not for the storm, with the actual number of mortalities. A flaw in this study is that subjective judgment was required to determine if a death was related to the hurricane, or if it would have happened anyway. According to an analysis by an opinion writer from The Hill , this methodology overestimated the number of fatalities by 50%.
Trump’s anger is understandable. Many in the media have cited the number of casualties from the George Washington study as proof that the response of the Trump administration was inadequate. Shamefully, his administration has been accused of allowing Puerto Ricans to die because its residents are Hispanic. Others have claimed that there was a lack of response because Puerto Rico is not a state.
What Went Wrong
After Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico had no electricity, water, telecommunications, and transportation. FEMA and other disaster relief groups had a herculean task with inadequate help from the local government.
Puerto Rico has been poorly managed for decades. Government corruption and inept leaders have financially ruined the island with $123 billion in debt and pension obligations. In May 2017 Puerto Rico filed for bankruptcy. This is the first time in history an American territory or state had to take this action.
As a result of its dire financial situation, Puerto Rico has neglected its infrastructure allowing it to crumble. Years before Maria, Puerto Rico’s roads, bridges dams, ports, hospitals, water treatment plant, and power company have been allowed to decay. A failure to invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as flood walls and dams also helped doomed the island. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of homes in Puerto Rico are substandard, built by the owners themselves in squatter communities.
The electric grid in Puerto Rico was on the brink of collapse long before Maria devastated the island. The Puerto Rican power utility, PREPA is $9 billion in debt, and had filed for bankruptcy in July, 2017.
Blackouts in Puerto Rico have been a common occurrence for many years. Before Maria Puerto Rico residents were experiencing 4-5 times the number of outages as the average US customer. In September, 2016, 1/2 of the island had no power for an entire week due to a transformer fire in the almost 50 year old power plant, forcing the governor to declare a state of emergency.
In an interview after Maria the governor of Puerto Rico Ricardo Rossello admitted to Reuters that no storm response plan could have accounted for the dilapidated electrical grid, which had been poorly maintained for years. He believes that even a much weaker storm than Maria would have collapsed the power plant.
A 2015-2016 assessment of PREPA by the Consultancy Synapse Energy Associates found that deferred upkeep led to a “degraded and unsafe” grid that was in need of significant modernization.
PREPA is also rife with corruption. As an example a PREPA executive arranged with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez to set up sludge oil purchases, while billing the utility company for high grade oil. The difference was kicked back to PREPA’s fuel office manager, and distributed to politicians and government officials.
The George Washington study also found that the preparedness of the island to handle a disaster such as Hurricane Maria, was woefully inadequate. Brock Long, head of FEMA, stated that emergency management was like a chair with 4 legs- 1.the federal government, 2.state and local government, 3, private sector, and 4. The citizens. He added that disaster response and recovery is a “whole community team effort”, and that FEMA was not only the first responder, but the only responder for weeks after the hurricane.
Jeff Byard, FEMA Associate Administration, explained that FEMA handles getting supplies to the state or commonwealth, which in turn handles distributing these items at a local level. Byard added that “obviously with Maria we had not a supplies issue, we had a distribution issue.”
Many ports in Puerto Rico had containers filled with goods that were unable to be distributed. A major obstacle being the refusal of local truck drivers to show up to make the deliveries. In some cases they were prevented to do so by their unions. Further, inept local government officials mandated a curfew from 7 PM to 5 AM preventing trucks from distributing badly needed fuel and supplies within the ravaged island.
Why is Puerto Rico Bankrupt
Puerto Rico is a great study case for why big government, heavily regulated, social welfare states, hamper economic growth.
Labor laws in Puerto Rico have most assuredly dampened economic growth. They are so onerous that businesses are reluctant to hire new employees. Employers are required to provide extensive benefits, such as paid vacations and annual bonuses. Government regulations also make it difficult for businesses to fire an employee.
The heavy-handed labor laws have contributed to Puerto Rico having one of the lowest labor force participation rates in the world. Only 40.1% of the working age residents are either employed or looking for work. In the mainland US the rate is 62.9%
Another reason for the low labor force participation rate are the welfare benefits that Puerto Ricans receive from the federal government. In spite of not being required to pay personal income tax to the US government, Puerto Ricans are entitled to a myriad of entitlement payments from the US federal government.
Such a significant percentage of the island receives welfare benefits that The Economist has labeled Puerto Rico the “Welfare Island”.
In 2010 nine of the top 10 zip codes for workers receiving disability payment benefits, among the states and territories of the US, were in Puerto Rico. Unbelievably, even though 95% of the island speaks Spanish, the social security administration has approved disability benefits for some Puerto Ricans because they cant speak English.
Further, over half the island depends on Medicaid for their health insurance. More than 40% of the island receives Nutrition Assistance ( also known as food Stamps). Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (cash payments) is also provided to more than a quarter of the residents in Puerto Rico. Other federal aid programs include Head Start, subsidized housing, utilities subsidies, and numerous other federal grant programs.
Unfortunately the low cost of living on the island is not factored into entitlement programs, So for many living in Puerto Rico, US federal transfer payments are a substitute for working.
In total Puerto Rico receives approximately $21 billion, yes “billion”, annually from the federal government . This is net of the $3.1 billion the US government receives from Puerto Rico in tax revenue.
The systemic government corruption along with the failing infrastructure in Puerto Rico have also been a big hinderance for the economy. In particular the unreliable electrical grid makes doing business in Puerto Rico a risky endeavor.
In spite of the claims made by those who strive daily to “resist’ the president, the United States government did not fail Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has received so much aid from the American taxpayers for recovery efforts after the storm that Governor Rossello has claimed that the bankrupt island may actually end the next five years with a surplus of $6.3 billion.
The Trump administration, and the US federal government do not bear the responsibility for the failures leading to the tragic death of many in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. The blame lays with the leadership in Puerto Rico, who through incompetence corruption, or both, allowed the island’s infrastructure to fall dangerously into disrepair leaving the island vulnerable.
Unfortunately if the main stream media reported the whole story on Puerto Rico’s many failings, it would force them to criticize the Hispanic Democrat -run island, which would be an untenable position for the left-leaning media to take. Further, it would deprive them of an opportunity to portray Trump, once again as a racist villain. As Rahm Emanuel, the current mayor of Chicago, infamously said when he was apart of the Obama administration, “never let a serious crisis go to waste”.
